Imagine the Future: Autonomous Weapons and Organized Crime — A Threat in Latin America
by Carolina Barrios Martínez
The United Nations (UN) Disarmament Week, observed from 24–30 October, seeks to promote awareness and better understanding of disarmament issues and their cross-cutting importance. Young people have an important role to play in the promotion of disarmament as a method to protect people from harm and to build safer and more peaceful societies.
In honour of this important week, members of the Stop Killer Robots Youth Network were asked to share their thoughts on the themes of disarmament and autonomous weapons systems. Disclaimer: The blogs in this series do not necessarily constitute the opinions of Stop Killer Robots, nor should they be considered the opinions and views of all Stop Killer Robots members.
As technology advances, criminal organizations in Latin America are evolving to adapt, strengthen their operations and extending their reach. Historically, these groups have utilized every tool at their disposal, from high-tech communication systems to sophisticated smuggling techniques, to maintain control over their illicit activities.
Now, a new frontier appears: the risk of autonomous weapons. If Latin American cartels and gangs gain access to autonomous weapons systems (AWS), the balance of power between the state and these groups could shift dramatically. This article seeks to explain why and how AWS can be a huge threat if non-state actors get their hands over this powerful weapon.
Why Autonomous Weapons Are Attractive to Organized Crime Groups
Criminal organizations are constantly searching for new technologies that give them a strategic advantage. Autonomous weapons offer several capabilities that make them appealing. First, they allow for remote control and territorial access, enabling criminals to overcome physical borders or checkpoints. Drones, for example, can be used to transport drugs. Other types of autonomous weapons can be used to launch attacks on rivals and law enforcement officials with unprecedented lack of accuracy, including facial recognition bias and precision targeting as stated by ICRC.
One alarming example comes from El Salvador, where the government struggles to combat highly organized gangs like MS-13. These groups have already shown their ability to control territory and resist law enforcement using technology (InSight Crime). Imagine if these gangs had access to swarms of autonomous weapons capable of monitoring police movements, attacking critical infrastructure, smuggling drugs, or carrying out lethal attacks without direct human intervention.
Autonomous weapons could also escalate violence in densely populated urban areas, leading to more civilian casualties and damaging state infrastructure. In Mexico, cartels have already employed crude drones to drop explosives, and the deployment of fully autonomous systems would make traditional law enforcement methods ineffective.
The Growing Challenge: Harder to Combat
With access to AWS, organized crime groups will become significantly harder to counterattack. In nations like Colombia, Brazil, and Honduras, law enforcement already faces tremendous challenges in fighting organized crime. Adding AWS to the equation would increase the complexity of combating these groups and might even force governments to rely on AI-powered surveillance systems to counter them. This trend is already visible in El Salvador, where the state has used high-tech surveillance systems to monitor gang activity (Reuters).
While these technologies could provide the state with an upper hand in the short term, they raise significant concerns about privacy and civil liberties. In some cases, such as in El Salvador, tech-driven surveillance has led to a state of constant vigilance, increasing fear among civilians and shrinking their personal freedoms.
Besides, criminal groups that can access data from the deep web or other illicit networks may gain a substantial advantage. This information allows them to exploit weak points in government infrastructure, manipulate surveillance systems, and even predict law enforcement movements. Without strict data security, the algorithms behind state-operated AWS could be compromised, further empowering cybercriminals (Ermprotect Forbes, Forbes).
The Race to Regulate AWS: It’s Urgent
To prevent this dystopian future, regulating AWS is crucial. The current absence of clear international guidelines regarding the development, sale, and use of autonomous weapons leaves a dangerous gap for criminal groups to exploit. Without regulations, the risks to security and personal freedom are immense.
Latin America, with its history of organized crime and state violence, is particularly vulnerable. In Colombia, FARC dissidents and ELN rebels continue to exploit modern technology to evade authorities, using encrypted communications and GPS systems to coordinate their activities.
If autonomous weapons become part of their arsenal, the consequences will be devastating. Regulating these systems now is the only way to minimize the threat posed by these groups and to prevent a future where AWS are misused to further destabilize already fragile regions.
Criminal organizations in Latin America have already shown themselves to be highly adaptable, integrating new technologies into their operations. For example, Mexican cartels have developed encrypted communication systems to avoid detection and use drones to smuggle drugs across borders (Insight Crime).
In Colombia, cartels employ hackers to infiltrate government databases and manipulate financial systems. Cybercrime has become a core part of organized crime activities, and the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering has expanded rapidly (Brookings, InSight Crime).
As autonomous systems become more affordable, these groups will likely integrate them into their operations. Groups could use AI-driven drones to deliver drugs, monitor law enforcement, or conduct targeted attacks by using facial recognition, posing a higher threat to local politicians and official armies. The future of organized crime in Latin America could involve technology-driven warfare, creating new challenges for law enforcement and society (ICCT).
A Call for Action
The threat of autonomous weapons in the hands of organized crime groups is real and urgent. If these technologies are not regulated, the consequences for Latin America’s struggle against drug cartels, gangs, and insurgent groups could be catastrophic. The international community must act quickly to establish clear guidelines on the development and use of AWS, preventing their misuse and ensuring they don’t contribute to further destabilization in the region. By regulating these systems, we can prevent a future where violence escalates, governments lose control, and millions of lives are put at risk.
